It’s easy to get caught up in the latest headlines. Budget changes, interest rates, or economic uncertainty can create noise and hesitation. But if you step back and look over a longer timeframe, the picture becomes a lot clearer.
I’ve been in this industry for over 24 years. When I started, homes were selling for in my market at $100,000 or below. At the time, that felt normal. No one was talking about million-dollar suburbs, and that these suburbs would get there, even crazier.
What I’ve seen since then is not a straight line. It’s a series of cycles, and each one tells you something about how this market really works.
The early 2000s: rapid growth
Perth’s early 2000s boom was driven by the resources sector. Demand surged, population growth accelerated, and prices followed. Between 2004 and 2007, Perth’s median house price moved from roughly $200,000 to close to $500,000. That’s more than doubling in a short period.
At one point, Perth was effectively on par with Sydney. For a market that had always been considered affordable, that shift was significant.
The GFC and what came next
Then the GFC hit.
Prices softened, and sentiment changed quickly. By late 2008, the median house price had fallen and was sitting below its previous peak. But the bigger story wasn’t the initial drop. It was what came after.
From around 2008 through to the early 2010s, the market went through a long period of stagnation. Some areas recovered briefly, with the median pushing towards about $515,000 by 2014, but that momentum didn’t hold.
The mining downturn
The next shift was tied closely to the end of the mining boom.
Commodity prices fell sharply. From their peak, bulk commodity prices dropped significantly over the following years, and that flowed through to the WA economy, with significantly less royalties than budgeted for. At the same time, WA’s GST position was under pressure. The state was contributing strongly to the national economy but receiving a much smaller share back.
Confidence dropped. Jobs were affected. Demand slowed.
I remember this period clearly. There were about 16,000 properties on the market. It wasn’t unusual for homes to sit for months. In my area, it was taking around 93 days to sell a property on average.
That’s what an oversupplied market looks like.
COVID: the unexpected turning point
Then COVID hit, and initially, there was uncertainty again. Borders closed, inspections stopped, and there was real concern about how the market would respond.
But what played out was different to previous downturns. Government stimulus, low interest rates, and changes in buyer behaviour supported the market rather than suppressed it. At the same time, supply didn’t keep pace.
What we saw was a reset.
Instead of a prolonged decline, real estate moved from a soft and oversupplied market into a tightening cycle. Stock levels started to fall, and buyer competition lifted. The market didn’t just stabilise. It began building momentum again. In hindsight, COVID marked the transition from a prolonged downturn into the current growth phase we are experiencing in Perth.
Where we are today
Now compare that to today, and much of the fear being spread yet again about the property market.
We’ve got just over 5,000 properties listed for sale in Perth based on recent data. Homes are selling in around 12 days. And median house prices are sitting around $900,000, with strong annual growth.
That’s a completely different market structure.
The drivers are also different from the last downturn:
- The resources sector is still strong, but the economy is more diversified
- GST reforms have improved WA’s position, with the state retaining a more stable share of revenue 1
- Population growth is among the strongest in the country
- Supply hasn’t kept up with demand, particularly in established areas
The takeaway
Over 24 years, I’ve seen rapid growth, sharp corrections, and long periods where nothing seemed to happen. At every stage, there were headlines predicting the worst. But the long-term trend is what matters.
Those homes that were $70,000 to $90,000 when I started are now pushing $900,000 to $1 million. I know this is a Perth perspective, but the lesson applies in most capital cities, and that lesson is simple. Short-term events matter, but they don’t define the outcome. Markets adjust, conditions change, and cycles play out.
If your strategy is built on sound fundamentals, you stay the course and adjust when needed and remember, when in doubt, zoom out.
